Coaching on Trial: Who’s Really Winning — and Who’s Faking It
- Dr. Wil Rodriguez
- Aug 10, 2025
- 4 min read
By Dr. Wil Rodríguez for TOCSIN Magazine
Act I — The Charges
Coaching is no longer a fringe side hustle — it’s a $4.56 billion global industry with over 109,000 practitioners worldwide. The glossy narrative: “We transform lives.”
But beneath the branding lies a different ledger:
53% of coaches earn less than $30,000/year from coaching — far from the prosperity they preach.
“Coach” is an unprotected title in most countries — equally available to an accredited executive coach or a self-help influencer with a Canva logo.
Evidence gaps: Executive and health coaching have measurable, peer-reviewed outcomes; life coaching remains an evidence-light, self-reported territory.
The prosecution’s opening question:
If this profession is so transformative, why are the results — and the incomes — so uneven?
Act II — The Defense
When coaching is well-designed, the data is clear:
Executive Coaching: Meta-analyses show consistent, moderate gains in leadership behavior, performance, and goal attainment — especially when the coaching is behavioral, not just conversational.
Health Coaching: Randomized trials link coaching to better chronic disease management — lowering A1C, improving medication adherence, reducing blood pressure.
Core Drivers: The strongest predictors of success are a solid working alliance (trust, agreed goals, clear boundaries) and a structured method (goal setting, accountability loops, feedback).
The defense rests on this:
Coaching works when it’s more than motivation — when it’s a disciplined, ethical, data-driven process.
Act III — The Verdict
The market is split between two tribes:
The Keepers
Publish measurable results.
Have a niche and deep contextual fluency.
Operate under recognized credentials and active supervision.
The Pretenders
Sell “transformation” without metrics.
Operate as therapy-lite without licenses.
Make more money teaching others “how to be a coach” than actually coaching.
The verdict: The Keepers can thrive in the next decade. The Pretenders will be replaced — by better coaches, by organizational standards, or by algorithms.
The Tensions No One Wants to Talk About
Life vs. Executive Coaching: One chases research legitimacy; the other guards its premium aura.
Coaching vs. Therapy: Ethical gray zones where harm can happen.
The AI Disruption: Coachbots are already in corporate pilots. They’re cheap, tireless, and scalable. Some niches will be replaced; others will adapt and thrive.
Mini Case Studies
Case 1: The Evidence-Driven Keeper
Sarah N., PCC — Executive coach in London. Works exclusively with CFOs in transition. Uses baseline leadership 360s, goal alignment contracts, and post-engagement ROI reports for HR. Average engagement renewal rate: 78%. Income: $185,000/year purely from coaching. Corporate clients describe her as “a strategist with receipts.”
Case 2: The Pretender Spiral
“Jake” — Self-styled “Quantum Mindset Coach” with no recognized training. Built Instagram following through high-energy lives. Sold $5,000 “mindset intensives” with no clear goals or metrics. Within 18 months, negative client reviews spread; business collapsed. Now primarily sells “coach your way to freedom” courses to other aspiring coaches.
The Coaching Credibility Map
(Imagine this as a two-axis graphic in TOCSIN spread)
X-axis: Evidence Base (low → high)
Y-axis: Marketing Hype (low → high)
Top Right (High Evidence, High Hype): Executive coaching firms with research + brand power.
Top Left (High Evidence, Low Hype): Credentialed health coaches in medical settings.
Bottom Right (Low Evidence, High Hype): Life-coaching influencers selling transformation without proof.
Bottom Left (Low Evidence, Low Hype): New, untrained coaches — invisible and struggling.
Sidebar 1 — The AI Factor
AI doesn’t have empathy, but it has memory, 24/7 availability, and infinite patience. Early experiments show coachbots outperforming humans in:
Tracking goals
Generating reflection prompts
Simulating scenarios for practice
Human coaches will need to prove they can deliver deeper insight, contextual strategy, and ethical safety — things AI still struggles to replicate.
Sidebar 2 — The Coaching-to-Coaches Pyramid
A hidden truth: A significant chunk of coaching revenue doesn’t come from clients — it comes from selling training and certifications to aspiring coaches. This pyramid dynamic risks flooding the market with underprepared practitioners, pushing average incomes down and skepticism up.
Sidebar 3 — The Money Reality
Average annual income: $52,800
Median: $30,000
Top 10%: $150k+
Translation: Coaching is not a guaranteed six-figure path — it’s a high-variance profession where skill, niche, and proof determine survival.
Two Futures, 2030
Dystopia: Coaching is a punchline — a half-regulated influencer hustle, automated at the bottom, distrusted at the top.
Utopia: Coaching is a respected, measurable profession embedded in enterprises and health systems, blending human insight with AI scalability.
The next five years decide which future we get.
Reflection Box — For Readers Who Dare
Could you prove — with hard data — that your coaching changes outcomes?
Are your methods rooted in science or slogans?
What’s your plan when AI starts eating the “easy” parts of your work?
Could you thrive if clients only paid for results?
Will your 2030 legacy be hype… or transformation?
Call to the TOCSIN Community
At TOCSIN Magazine, we don’t just report — we sound the alarm. Coaching is at a crossroads, and the profession needs fewer slogans and more substance. Join Dr. Will Rodríguez in reshaping coaching into a craft that earns its keep in the human future. Let’s protect what works, expose what fails, and make the word “coach” mean something again.
Go to: tocsinmag.com
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